Lee Anderson joining Reform UK is unquestionably a disaster for Rishi Sunak. It will guarantee the challenger party huge coverage and further orientate it towards the ‘Red Wall’ vote that powered the Tories to victory in 2019. Expect to see opinion polls showing a further decrease in the gap between Reform and Conservative vote shares in the coming weeks.
The outspoken Anderson hitching his wagon to Reform will create a pull factor for working class culturally and socially conservative voters to match the push factor that Sunak himself set in train when he sacked Suella Braverman and brought David Cameron into his cabinet. Reform has added about five points to its poll rating since that politically clueless reshuffle. Another five points, taken from the Tory column, would put the two parties very close to parity.
Now there is a real prospect of the Tory vote share in Red Wall seats switching to Reform in bulk
So far so lovely for Keir Starmer and the Labour party, then.
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