Labour MPs’ minds wander to a post-election contest

With the opinion polls so tight at the moment, we’re having to look for other ways to try and work out what the general election result will be. One indicator worth watching is which party is spending more time thinking about the leadership contest that would follow an election.

Now, there has been plenty of speculation about this on both the Tory and Labour benches in recent times. But in the last few weeks, I’ve picked up more of it from the Labour side. One Labour frontbencher calculates that the focus of ‘half the party is on what happens next’. Last week’s Labour kerfuffle over NHS policy was driven, in large part, by concern from the party’s Blairite old guard that Andy Burnham is using the policy to position himself for a post-election leadership contest.

This can, of course, all change round again. But, at the moment, Tory Ministers and MPs seem happier with the party’s strategy and position than their opposite numbers on the Labour side and more convinced that them that they are going to be the largest party after the next election.