Labour is doomed whether Starmer stays or goes

So the Conservatives have won the ‘pools, as we used to say of jackpot winners before the advent of the National Lottery.

The Hartlepool constituency, known before 1974 as ‘the Hartlepools’ in recognition of the distinct settlements of old Hartlepool and West Hartlepool, has just secured its place in British political folk lore. It isn’t just the fact of a red wall brick turning blue at a by-election some 11 years into Tory-led governments that is remarkable, but also the crushing extent of the Conservative victory.

While by-elections are often remembered as flashes in the pan – with shock results reversed at subsequent general elections – that is because they are normally won by opposition parties when governments are going through unpopular phases.

The rest of Starmer’s Labour leadership is now eminently predictable

For governing parties to win hitherto safe opposition seats in by-elections is very rare indeed. When it happens by a landslide, at the start of mid-term, amid ‘sleaze’ accusations being flung at the PM and against a leader of the opposition who should still be in his honeymoon phase then we are entitled to suppose that something more profound is going on.