Every few weeks I write a ‘Why isn’t Scottish Labour ahead in the polls yet?’ piece. Here is the latest instalment and the take away is: Labour still hasn’t sealed the deal but it continues to close in on a vulnerable SNP. New polling from Redfield and Wilton shows the SNP retaining its three-point lead over Labour in Westminster voting intentions, with the Nationalists on 37 per cent and Labour on 34 per cent. Plugging these figures into the Electoral Calculus prediction tool gives the SNP 27 seats and Labour 22. If the next election played out this way, the SNP would have failed to win a majority of Scottish seats for the first time since 2015.
If the next election played out this way, the SNP would have failed to win a majority of Scottish seats for the first time since 2015
Even so, given the events of the past six months, Labour might have been expected to be leading consistently by now. The SNP has lost its most successful leader in Nicola Sturgeon after a punishing row about the housing of Adam Graham (Isla Bryson), a convicted rapist, in a women’s prison. Then there was the messy leadership election, followed by police raids and internal tensions over the Holyrood coalition with the Greens. Plus the collapse of key policies on recycling and fishing, a rising bill for incomplete ferries and Humza Yousaf’s decision to keep gender reform front and centre.
Gender reform is the Scottish government’s most unpopular policy, with an approval rating of minus 19 per cent. Only Labour can’t capitalise on that because Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar whipped his MSPs to vote for the SNP-Green legislation. Beyond this, Labour has failed to gain traction on other areas where the Scottish government’s approval rating is minus double digits: the economy, housing and drugs policy. Voters are clearly beginning to have second thoughts about the SNP but they still seem unsure about Labour. Asked about their preferred First Minister, Scots prefer Yousaf over Sarwar by a margin of five points.
Despite this, there are signs of progress for Labour. Sarwar may trail Yousaf for First Minister but he is ahead by 13 points in overall job approval. Sir Keir Starmer’s approval rating is up among Scottish voters, standing at plus 2 per cent. The next Holyrood election isn’t until 2026 but Labour has edged ahead of the SNP in voting intentions for the second (regional list) ballot, albeit by one point. Labour’s strategy of attacking both the Scottish and UK governments would appear to chime with the voters. Questioned on competence, voters deem the former incompetent by a margin of 14 points and the latter by 49 points. Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has also dropped eight points to minus 28 per cent.
So, why isn’t Scottish Labour ahead in the (Westminster) polls yet? Well, for one, the election is at least another 12 months away. For another, the floor of SNP support is artificially inflated by the independence issue. The Redfield and Wilton poll puts support for independence at 48 per cent when don’t knows are excluded, and while 73 per cent of SNP voters say they’d vote to secede from the UK, only 42 per cent of Labour voters say the same. The national question continues to be the SNP’s trump card among a section of the electorate. That doesn’t mean Labour’s ceiling is 22 seats, but it does mean that to come first in seats, it will either have to win over more independence supporters or hope the SNP does something to shed some of them or other members of its electoral coalition.
Despite my scepticism, I’m not convinced that Labour can’t win a plurality of Scottish seats next year. It would be a gruelling feat and involve effort, persuasion, positioning and luck – but it’s not impossible if Labour can convince voters that it’s the fresh alternative to two stale, failing governments in Edinburgh and London.
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