One of the trends Keir Starmer will be looking for is the reversal of the Brexit effect, with Labour heartlands coming back to Labour. A study of 200 seats counted so far – a pretty small fragment – does seem to show a correlation with the swing away from the Tories in the places where the Leave vote was strongest.
Will Jennings, a professor at Southampton University, has mapped the election results so the swing is mapped against the strength of Brexit vote. His work, for Sky News, shows a significant correlation so far:
This matters because it supports one of the main hypotheses of a Labour victory: that neither Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak turns out to be an inspiring leader, leaving tribal loyalties to kick in. The 2016 Brexit vote turned Brexiteers in working-class areas from Labour to Tory – but they ended up disillusioned after the failure of the Tories to convert Brexit into a movement for broader reform.
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