Of all the election results due in on Thursday night, those for the Scottish Parliament
may be the most significant. Labour’s Scottish base, which has been the party’s bedrock for almost 50 years, seems to be dissolving.
Two more opinion polls yesterday gave details. One, in the Mail on Sunday in Scotland, gave the SNP a ten point lead on the constituency vote and a six point lead on the list vote: this would give the Nationalists 62 seats to Labour’s 51.
With the Greens on course to pick up three seats according to the Progressive Opinion poll, Alex Salmond would have enough votes to hit the magic 65 he needs for a majority to pass his independence referendum bill.
The second poll, by YouGov for Scotland on Sunday, gave the SNP a narrower lead: eight points on the constituency vote and two points on the list vote. This would give the SNP 55 seats to Labour’s 48 — still comfortably enough for Salmond to remain First Minister and deny Ed Miliband the Scottish comeback that many had been taking for granted only a few weeks ago.
For Labour, the postmortem has already begun – with Labour Uncut publishing a particularly scathing assessment here.
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