Crimea matters to Russians – whether they adore or abhor Vladimir Putin – in a way none of the other claimed or occupied Ukrainian territories do, and as such the peninsula’s fate will probably be central to any eventual resolution of the current war. That some Ukrainian sources are now talking about a military reconquest in the summer campaign season and others of diplomatic solutions suggests the possibility of movement.
Whatever the official line, there are also many in Kyiv who are uncertain if they really want Crimea
To be sure, there is no fundamental shift in Kyiv’s official position, that Crimea – like all the occupied territories – must be returned to its control, and that this could be by military force if necessary, negotiation if possible. Hawkish military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov predicted that Ukrainian forces would be in Crimea by the end of spring, while presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said at the start of this month that it was ‘mathematically proven’ that this would happen within five to six months.
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