There is no region of the UK where Labour has dominated more – both politically and culturally – than Wales. Since 1922, the party has consistently won general elections there, and has ruled Cardiff’s devolved government relatively unchallenged since it was established in 1999. But Keir Starmer would be wise to keep his eye on events in Wales as he seeks to outflank the Prime Minister.
The surprising impact of this Covid crisis has been a surge in Welsh nationalism, which until now was a slumberous movement reserved for the radicals of Plaid Cymru and Welsh football fans. The flames of nationalism have been fanned by Cardiff’s break with Downing Street policies on coronavirus restrictions, and Welsh Labour have become increasingly affected by this nationalist surge. A recent YouGov survey of Labour’s Welsh voters captured the change: 51 per cent of respondents now said they would vote for independence, a staggering figure for a party that has historically championed the social and economic partnership of the Union.
As well as the shift to nationalism in his Welsh ranks, Sir Keir must have looked on in despair as Wales’ Labour First Minister, Mark Drakeford, said last week that no Prime Minister should stand in the way of an independence referendum in either Scotland or Wales.
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