It is often written that the Labour party has an enormous electoral mountain to climb in order to win a majority at the next general election – or possibly, even the general election after that. What isn’t evaluated enough is what this means in hard, psephological terms. Winning substantially in Scotland appears to be getting harder and harder by the day, with the SNP looking indomitable. This means that Labour has to win in England and Wales on a Blair-style majority – perhaps even bigger than Blair given the Scottish problem. All this leads to one conclusion: Labour has to figure out how to win again in seats with a rural contingent.
When looked at from one angle, this is completely doable. Blair’s Labour party held around 170 rural or semi-rural seats after 1997 (and worth noting, he kept them in 2001). Both the SNP and the Lib Dems have been able to win these kinds of constituencies while being broadly on the centre-left.
Comments
Join the debate for just $5 for 3 months
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for $5.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just $5 for 3 monthsAlready a subscriber? Log in