The British political and media establishment had Remain winning the Brexit referendum at a canter, Hillary Clinton as US president by a landslide, Change UK actually changing the UK and a ‘Government of National Unity’ emerging in the Commons after Boris Johnson removed the whip from dozens of Tory grandees. All completely wrong.
What does conventional wisdom tell us about British politics over the past three months? That Boris Johnson and the Conservatives are in huge trouble, of course.
Boris has been seen to bungle the coronavirus pandemic, and so will be blamed for the looming economic meltdown. The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have slumped. Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer has proved to be a credible new leader for Labour and the poll gap between the parties is already tumbling – down from 15 points to about five. Momentum is all running Labour’s way.
While this analysis stitches together fragments of stuff which has actually happened to other predicted developments, it gives a highly selective account and is liable to be completely wrong once again.
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