When he found out that a career-minded MP called Rishi Sunak had come out in favour of leaving the EU, David Cameron turned to George Osborne and declared: ‘We’ve lost the future of the party.’
Almost eight years later, Sunak should be turning to his own wing man – Oliver Dowden perhaps or even Cameron himself – and saying the same thing about the resignation of Robert Jenrick as immigration minister.
Because Jenrick quitting over the Rwanda Bill not being strong enough is an equally telling moment. The 41-year-old Jenrick comes from the same well-mannered, centre-right Tory tradition as Sunak. He is in politics for the long haul and undoubtedly sees a return to full Cabinet rank as part of his personal career plan.
He was sent by Sunak to the Home Office to man mark that wild card Suella Braverman. But he came to see that she was right on the fundamentals of migration policy of both the legal and illegal varieties.
And now he has quit Sunak’s administration, resigning both on a point of principle and as a result of a calculated analysis about the future direction and likely reservoirs of support of the Conservative party.
As a good performer on the Today programme and all-round smooth operator, Jenrick could easily have prospered in any ‘liberal Conservative’ government over the next 20 years. Clearly, he has gone because he does not think there is going to be such a government.
Instead, his political antennae have told him, correctly in my view, that the Conservative Party is going to lose the next election and then undergo a major reorientation that will see its patrician liberal wing of upper-class internationalists getting marginalised and then dropping out.
In their place will emerge an earthier, more provincial pro-nation state party that is genuinely socially conservative, particularly around the totemic issue of border control.
Jenrick has, in effect, made the opposite choice to the one that Sunak made a few weeks ago when he sacked Braverman and brought Cameron back into cabinet along with various bright young things who travel light when it comes to ideological baggage.
As immigration minister he looked into the future of migration trends and realised that the international arrangements currently in place are completely unsustainable and that the British public will turn towards a Nigel Farage political vehicle to remedy things if the Tories do not.
As MP for Newark in Nottinghamshire – a prosperous rural constituency with a market town at its heart – he has no doubt worked out that the Tories can win again if they rebuild the victorious 2019 electoral coalition of socially and culturally conservative voters across traditional shire seats and Red Wall ones alike.
Blue Wall, Home Counties Tory liberalism of a kind that prioritises foreign aid over domestic levelling up or international law over basic border control is destined to become so much political roadkill. The actual Liberal Democrats or Keir Starmer’s new Blairism will hoover up voters who believe in that stuff.
The short-term impact of Jenrick’s departure will be to blow further holes in Sunak’s credibility on stopping the boats and immigration control in general. The odds must now be on a no confidence vote in the Prime Minister taking place before the Christmas recess.
But it is the long-term impact that is more fascinating still. Like other bright Tories who have yet to hit their career zeniths – Neil O’Brien and Nick Timothy come to mind – Jenrick has detected both the electoral and intellectual power of scepticism about mass, uncontrolled migration.
The National or ‘New’ Conservative movement, which prioritises the ideas of citizen preference in public services and social housing, strong law and order, pro-family policy, resisting Woke onslaughts from the identitarian left, and the enhancement of social solidarity is the coming force.
It will either take a controlling interest in the Tory party or create a party of its own – perhaps in conjunction with senior voices in Reform or even the SDP – after a calamitous Conservative defeat next year. Either way, a big shake-out is coming and the smart people are turning right just as Sunak has headed back towards the psychological comfort of the established centre ground. The herd is on the move again, but it is not going where Sunak wishes to lead it.
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