November 8th, 1994 is one of the hinge moments in modern American politics. If you wanted to write a counter-factual chronicle of recent American politics you could do worse than begin with the night George W Bush was elected Governor of Texas and Jeb Bush was defeated by Lawton Chiles in Florida. The 63,940 votes by which Chiles defeated Jeb changed American politics.
Jeb, you see, was supposed to be the Guy. He was the Bush who would make it big on the national stage. 1994 changed that, knocking Jeb out the game and opening a door for Dubya. Bill Minutaglio’s biography of George suggests that the brothers’ parents saw it that way too. George Sr and Barbara were more concerned with consoling Jeb than congratulating George Jr. Just this once, can’t you be happy for me? complained George Jr.
Ever since Jeb has been, quietly and unobtrusively, the Republican party’s King Over the Water.
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