I don’t hold much faith in forecasts by the IMF. They have been so wrong in the past as to be worthless. A week before referendum day in 2016, for example, the IMF predicted that a Leave vote would take 5.5 per cent off UK GDP by 2019, tipping us into recession in 2017. We’re still waiting.
However, it is interesting to note that if the Remain lobby does want to continue quoting IMF forecasts at us, there is an inconvenient little statement in its latest World Economic Outlook, published today. It claims that in the event of a ‘disruptive Brexit’ – i.e. Britain leaving without a trade deal – the EU economy, as well as the UK economy, would be deeply affected: “Under such circumstances, our concern is that economic growth will suffer, especially in the UK, but also the euro area.
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