It’s a grim start to the night for Kamala Harris

This is a grim night so far, in terms of every piece of data that we have about how Kamala Harris is performing.

Of the four different possible situations, one was obviously a big win for Harris, one was a small win for Harris, one was a small win for Trump, and one was a big win for Trump. I was putting my chips on the last option as the likeliest. I just think that given the dynamics involved, it’s a lot more likely that we are underestimating the fundamentals than that we are missing some big gargantuan upheaval that we haven’t seen.

So what do you end up with? Well, you end up with a situation where perhaps we missed the forest for the trees in terms of analysis. It’s very possible that there are a lot of analysts out there who got caught up in some of the stuff that’s happened over the past couple of weeks: the Madison Square Garden rally, for instance, when they really should have been paying attention to the fundamentals all along.