This is a grim night so far, in terms of every piece of data that we have about how Kamala Harris is performing.
Of the four different possible situations, one was obviously a big win for Harris, one was a small win for Harris, one was a small win for Trump, and one was a big win for Trump. I was putting my chips on the last option as the likeliest. I just think that given the dynamics involved, it’s a lot more likely that we are underestimating the fundamentals than that we are missing some big gargantuan upheaval that we haven’t seen.
So what do you end up with? Well, you end up with a situation where perhaps we missed the forest for the trees in terms of analysis. It’s very possible that there are a lot of analysts out there who got caught up in some of the stuff that’s happened over the past couple of weeks: the Madison Square Garden rally, for instance, when they really should have been paying attention to the fundamentals all along.
Kamala is lagging behind in the communities that she needs to win, and to win decisively in some of these key states. She’s significantly behind Biden in a number of these different areas.
The general mood among Democrats versus Republicans right now couldn’t be further apart. The Republicans are feeling really good about things. They’re looking at the betting markets where it’s taken a big swing in his favour; they’re looking at a number of the different elements that are still out there; and they’re looking at the situation in Michigan in particular, where when you look at the issues that matter on the exit polls. They’re looking at how poorly she’s doing, particularly among black men, which we knew was going to be a problem, but she’s also lagging Biden’s numbers among black women.
Everything that we have going on right now seems to indicate that this realignment is real, that there’s not going to be some kind of pullback. If this continues, I think it’s very possible that we have an early night.
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This article was originally published on The Spectator’s World edition’s election night liveblog.
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