Bernard Jenkin has just told ITV’s Romilly Weeks that he won’t currently be voting for the Brady amendment. This suggests that the amendment won’t have the numbers as a large chunk of the ERG won’t vote for it.
Even from an ERG perspective, this is—to my mind—a tactical mistake. If the Brady amendment doesn’t get a majority on Tuesday, it will be taken by Brussels and by many in the cabinet as proof that a Tory DUP alliance can’t get any withdrawal agreement through. After all, anyone who won’t vote for Brady is saying that they wouldn’t vote for the withdrawal agreement even if the backstop was replaced by ‘alternative arrangements’ designed to prevent a hard border.
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