It’s the statisticians wot done it

Much hoo-hah – and rightly so – over the crime statistics that the Home Office have published today.  The issue is with the “Most serious violent offences” figure, which has risen by 22 percent since last year – an increase that Jacqui Smith attributes to previous inconsistencies in how the police totted up the “GBH with intent” numbers (for the official explanation, click here).  But a passage from another Home Office document (pdf, here) is worth highlighting:

“At least two-thirds of the 26% increase in GBH with intent can be attributed to the clarification in the counting rules referred to earlier. This also influences the overall figure for ‘Most serious violence against the person’.”

In other words – and this is according to the Home Office’s account – a potential third of the increase in serious violent crime is because of … well … an increase in serious violent crime.  Not that you’d guess that from Smith’s interviews today, in which she concentrates completely on the statistical readjustments.