The Office for National Statistics’ preliminary figures for Q4 growth, released a
few weeks ago, were a curious beast. They they were, suggesting that
because of a snow-laden December our economy had started shrinking again, to the tune of -0.5 per cent. And yet so many other indicators were doing rather nicely: from activity in the services sector to the Exchequer’s tax take. Many people, myself included, suspected
it was only a matter of time before the ONS revised that -0.5 figure into more positive territory.
Now time has passed, and the ONS has just revised the Q4 figure downwards, not upwards. Their preliminary figure wasn’t quite right, they say. It should have been -0.6 per cent. Given that the snow was thought to reduce GDP growth by 0.5 per cent, that presumably means that GDP shrank by 0.1 per cent even without the uncooperative weather.
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