It’s sad in a way, but Michael Portillo is no longer a serious figure

The prospect of war now eclipses everything at Westminster. To use the narrow, though reassuring, boundaries of the English racing calendar, hostilities are unlikely to break out before the final day of the Cheltenham Festival on 13 March. But they will probably have ceased, at any rate as far as the initial stage of the conflict is concerned, by the time the Grand National is run on 5 April.

From a parochial perspective, the next few weeks will go far towards determining how the Blair premiership is judged by historians. Since the 2001 general election the government has on a number of occasions given the impression that it will inevitably collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. It has lost momentum, giving the impression of being cast adrift. Successful resolution of the crisis will give the Prime Minister new confidence and a freer hand. Allies of Tony Blair believe that he will be able to use the aftermath of the Iraq imbroglio to reshape a Cabinet more to his liking, just as the Falklands war gave Margaret Thatcher her chance to wield the axe.