It’s not over yet between Israel and Iran

Is that it? This is the immediate and understandable reaction in some quarters to the news that Israel has carried out a series of limited air strikes against Iran. Explosions were reported in the sky over the cities of Isfahan and Tabriz. Details are still sketchy but US officials were quick to brief that Israel was behind the attacks. The Israelis have made no public comment: it is official policy never to confirm or deny such military action. The Iranian government, which had promised a ‘massive and harsh response’ to ‘even the tiniest invasion’ was quick to play down the scale of the attack, indicating there was no ‘immediate’ plan for retaliation.

Israel has carried out a strike, but it is small enough for the Iranians to brush it off. The consensus view is that this allows both sides to save face and avoid further escalation. It is tempting as an analysis of events, but somewhat premature.