A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah now seems closer than at any point since 7 October. Recent escalations, including the killing of twelve Druze children by a Hezbollah rocket and the assassination of the organisation’s armed forces commander, mean that war is now a more likely scenario.
A war in Lebanon would look very differently to the war in Gaza. Hezbollah has always been bigger and more powerful than Hamas. Much of Hezbollah’s extensive weapons come from Iran. According to Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), these include long, medium and short-range precision missiles, more than 150,000 rockets, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, and drones used for reconnaissance and attacks. Its tens of thousands of troops (estimated range between 70,000-100,000) have gained valuable experience fighting in Syria.
These are enough to try overwhelm Israel’s defence systems from attacks on civilian population, military bases and critical infrastructure.
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