Isaac Levido’s warning to the Tory party

Tory MPs start the week fretting about their seats after the Telegraph published an MRP poll suggesting Keir Starmer would win a majority of 120 if an election were held tomorrow. So, it was a case of interesting timing that the party’s official election strategist Isaac Levido was already scheduled to address Tory MPs on Monday night. Levido ran the 2019 election campaign and holds clout with Conservative MPs (when Liz Truss cut ties with the strategist during her premiership, it led to panic in parts of the party).

Levido used the address to discuss that poll – playing down its significance as ‘just another poll, another MRP model, with the same margins of error, the same statistical limitations as any other – and you know your constituencies better than me, better than any media commentators and certainly better than any public pollster’.

He then went further – taking aim at the mysterious Tory donors behind the poll, which has been championed by Lord Frost:

The people who organised this poll and analysed and timed the release of it seem to be intent on undermining this government and our party, and therefore the re-election prospects of every single one of you in this room.

They seem to be throwing in the towel, and are more interested in what happens after the election rather than fighting it – making the pathway narrower and steeper.

According to those present, Levido went on to warn MPs: ‘Let me be clear. ⁠Divided parties fail. It’s time to get serious – I am fighting to win this election, and I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t believe it was possible. We all need to be be fighting to win this election.’ He said that voters were unconvinced by Starmer and are ‘looking for reasons to vote for us. We must not give them any more reasons not to’.

This message received a warm response with banging on the tables by attendees. But overall, those hoping for a pep talk or secret polling to suggest all is rosier than it seems will have left disappointed. One attendee describes the mood as ‘sombre and serious’.

As for the wider strategy, MPs were shown a slide presentation of the polling over the past year – and the gap between the Tories and Labour. When it comes to the message the Tories will be pushing in an election year, Levido said the economy would be front and centre. As for Brexit, they should talk about the benefits rather than reprosecute the case for it.

In the past week or so, Rishi Sunak along with ministers have been talking about the need to ‘stick with the plan’, rather than risk going back ‘to square one’ with Starmer. MPs were told this message will be important as they can contrast themselves with Starmer arguing he has no plan. It could also be used against the Liberal Democrats and Reform.

When it came to the question and answer session that followed, a lot of the questions were technical. There was one approaching hostile intervention from Justin Tomlinson who suggested he didn’t think the plan was the best but he was still glad the Tories had one. After the meeting ended, one Tory MP said: ‘It hasn’t made things worse but it’s a reminder of how far we have to go.’