Is Putin preparing to invade Ukraine? It certainly looks that way, with western intelligence agencies estimating this week that around 100,000 troops are now massing at the country’s eastern border.
To some, this build-up is proof enough that the Kremlin plans to invade. This week the US president Joe Biden even made significant diplomatic concessions to Moscow to prevent a looming conflict.
But the US president should keep in mind that capability does not prove intent: and Putin may well decide that the cost of invasion is too hard to justify. His recent Ukrainian mobilisation could still be a piece of ‘heavy-metal diplomacy’ – a show of force intended to bully and bluff Kyiv and the West into concessions.
Vladimir Putin may have some odd views about Ukraine and its history, but he is a pragmatist
Vladimir Putin may have some odd views about Ukraine and its history, but he is a pragmatist.
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