Is this the beginning of the end for Jacinda Ardern?

Many people envisage Jacinda Ardern’s 2017 electoral victory as a romp, a 1997 Tony Blair-esque sea change of optimism. In reality, in the months leading up to that election Ardern’s Labour party was by no means a sure bet. In a similarly blurred retrospect, Ardern’s first term as PM is thought of as unified and productive. People believe she was always going to coast to re-election before Covid hit. In fact, Ardern’s government may have been in a parlous enough state to lose, before being suddenly resuscitated and given focus with massive public backing in response to the pandemic.  

It was the 2020 election, set against the backdrop of Covid-19, that delivered Labour its triumphant majority and the power to govern alone.

Next year’s election, in the latter half of 2023, is looking like an increasingly difficult proposition for Ardern’s government.

Labour has been sliding in the polls all year. In February, Jacinda Ardern’s party