Is there really a private school exodus?

Will Labour actually gain some revenue for slapping VAT on school fees, or is it heading for fiscal embarrassment as so many private school pupils are decanted into the state sector that the taxpayer will suffer a net loss? The question has been batted around for months as everyone ponders a great unknowable: how many parents would throw in the towel when faced with a higher bill for educating Barnabus and Fenella, and send them to the local comp instead?

An early indication has been provided on Friday by the Independent Schools Council (ISC), which claims that the number of pupils enrolled in independent schools (or at least those affiliated to the ISC) has fallen by 10,000 – or 1.7 per cent – in a year. Educating this number of pupils in the state sector, it says, would cost £93 million. Worse, though, might be to come. The biggest drop in pupil numbers, according to the ISC, is among year 7 pupils – the first year of secondary school. Their