Is there anywhere visitors will be welcome this summer?

Do stock markets foretell the future while politicians fudge and economists mumble? No: share prices collectively have a life of their own — driven by herd mentality, weight of money and the available range of investment choices — which indicates little more than the simple fact that what goes up must one day come down and vice versa.

Both the FTSE100 and America’s S&P500 indices lost a third of their value between late February when the pandemic began to look serious and a month later when the rate of virus transmission was at its height. So far, so logical. But since then, both have sustained rallies that defy all public and corporate pessimism. Now, just as shops and factories are reopening, both markets look ‘overbought’ and wobbly again. How should we interpret the graph?

First, London always tends to follow New York. Second, traders on both sides — adolescents in the era of the ‘Greenspan put’ who grew up to be veterans of the 2008 crash — believe ‘whatever it takes’ government interventions will ultimately save the day.