The government’s efforts to get changes to the backstop have run into a brick wall in Brussels. The EU thinks, with justification, that MPs won’t allow no deal and so feels under no pressure to make significant concessions. As I write in The Sun this morning, one minister fully briefed on the negotiations says ‘we’re at what the hell do we do time’
But without a change to the backstop, Theresa May’s deal is going down to another heavy defeat on Tuesday. That won’t be the end of the matter, though. For the next day, parliament will vote against leaving on March 29th with no deal. Parliament will then almost certainly vote to request an extension to Article 50.
At this moment, the UK would be in the EU’s hands. As one weary Number 10 source admits, ‘They’d be in a position of being able to dictate terms.’ It would be up to the EU to decide whether to grant an extension, how long it would be for and what conditions would be attached to it.
The EU would almost certainly grant one.
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