Is there a new Covid wave – and do we need to worry?

Is Covid back on the rise? The ONS survey shows increasing prevalence in England and Northern Ireland, with ‘uncertain’ results in Wales and Scotland. Scotland’s prevalence (2.4 per cent have the virus, according to the ONS) is almost double anywhere else. Hospitalisations are rising too: up 17 per cent since last week – though two-thirds are incidental (ie in hospital for other reasons).

So is this a new Covid wave? ‘Early signs that Covid may be rising’, says the BBC. But to those following the data closely, the uptick has been expected for some time – as the natural side-effect of a new variant. It is not, in and of itself, cause for alarm. Omicron is still mutating: and now the sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5 have taken over.

Covid watchers saw this coming for some time. Because these sub-variants are able to evade some of the immunity from vaccines or infections, cases are likely to rise when they become dominant.