Is the war slipping away from Ukraine?

After the decisive failure of Russia’s attempt to overthrow the government of Ukraine by seizing Kyiv, Kharkiv and other key cities in February and March 2022, Russia has concentrated its depleted forces in the Donbas and set itself far more limited objectives. In the two months since its retreat from the north of Ukraine, Russia has finally subdued the besieged defenders of Mariupol – who had been surrounded since the second day of the invasion – and slowly gained territory in Donbas.

Since then Russia’s most notable conquest has been the small but important town of Popasna and the surrounding high ground that overlooks key supply routes into the city of Sievierodonetsk. Russia is slowly inching forward in Donbas, but its progress needs to be understood as part of the wider context of the war as a whole.

Since the start of the invasion, Ukrainian forces have inflicted catastrophic losses on the Russian ground forces, with around 18,000 to 20,000 troops killed in action, around 60,000 total casualties and more than 4,350 vehicles confirmed destroyed or captured.