Is the second wave slowing?

New confirmed cases of Covid-19 have been rising now since early July — steadily at first and then sharply since early September. But is there any sign of an increase in deaths?

The latest weekly figures from the Office for National Statistics for deaths in England and Wales, released this morning, do record an increase in deaths where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. In week 38 (ending 18 September) there were 139 such deaths — 40 more than the previous week. To put that into perspective, they accounted for 1.5 per cent of all deaths. They continue to be dwarfed by deaths in which ‘influenza and pneumonia’ is mentioned as a cause — which accounted for 14 per cent of all deaths. In neither case — Covid or influenza and pneumonia — are they necessarily the main cause of death. It means they were mentioned somewhere on the death certificate.