Is the looming prospect of Brexit dampening trade with other EU countries? Not if the latest trade statistics are anything to go on. Figures out today – the final set to be published before the referendum – show that imports to the UK from other EU countries are at a record high: rising by £1bn between March and April this year. Britain’s exports to other EU countries also rose in the same period – jumping by £0.9bn, with oil and chemicals making up a large chunk of this number (£0.5bn).
These figures can be interpreted in two ways and as with many things to do with the EU referendum, both ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ could argue these statistics make their case for their respective arguments. For those campaigning for Brexit, these numbers show just how important Britain is as a market place for EU countries selling their goods. It’s clear, they might say, that Brexit wouldn’t mean these places suddenly turned their backs on Britain – we’re worth too much for them to do that. And, by extension, the EU would be cutting its nose to spite its face if it did penalise Britain over Brexit with high tariffs.
James Forsyth and Christopher Meyer discuss what happens after Brexit:
But there is a flip side. Relatively speaking, Britain earns 15 per cent of its GDP from trading with the EU, compared to the EU which earns five per cent of its overall GDP trading with us. Of course, this number varies from country to country – but taken overall, we’re worth less to the EU than the EU is to us, and that could affect Britain’s bargaining position in negotiating any trade deal after Brexit. This would be the argument taken by ‘Remain’ campaigners, at least, who would also suggest that Brexit could make Britain a less attractive market for selling goods. In truth, these trade statistics might not make or break the case for which way to vote in the referendum. But they do pour water on the suggestion that other EU countries are already bracing themselves for Brexit.
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