Everyone agrees: the outcome of this election is impossible to predict. But are we witnessing the end of the stable, two-party system of government we’ve become used to? On Monday, the Spectator posed this question to a panel of political experts for their thoughts on whether this election will mark the beginning of a series of coalitions.
James Forsyth, the Spectator’s political editor pointed out that ‘you don’t need a single party government for stable government’. He thinks that after polling day, the next government is unlikely to be similar to the current arrangement. Based on the current polling numbers, Forsyth said the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives would be 20 short of a majority while Labour and the SNP are likely to be roughly ten short. This means that three parties have to be involved in a coalition — an entirely different proposition. But despite these challenges, Forsyth thinks that a political leader could come along and win 40 per cent of the vote — but there is no one standing for Parliament in May who could do that.
Matthew Parris, columnist for the Times and The Spectator, argued that the debate is ‘all a bit overheated’ but he doesn’t think there will be another coalition. Like Forsyth, Parris argued that ‘we must not confuse politics with government.’ ‘We may have unstable politics for the next 10-15 years but government will be stable — it’s mostly a matter of administration carried out by civil servants,’ he pointed out. On this theme of stability, Parris said that the great clashes of the 20th century — be it markets, economics and social matters — have all been resolved.
Constitutional expert Vernon Bogdanor thinks that ‘anything could happen’ on May 7 and those predicting the outcome are either ‘very foolish or a social scientist’. He thinks that a small minority would be the ‘most unstable’ option — with the Tories dependent on its hard-right figures like Peter Bone, and Labour on its left-wing figures. Bogdanor pointed out that the longest minority government was from 1929 to 1931, but even that was was buttressed by an electoral pact. But if there was a minority government and the Prime Minister went back to the country in October, he doesn’t think it would ‘yield a very different result’. Bogdanor blamed the death of the two-party system on social changes, which have fuelled the rise of Ukip and the SNP.
Jeremy Browne, the retiring Liberal Democrat MP for Taunton Deane, said that 2015 is going to be a ‘continuity election’ and ‘if government was on the ballot paper, it would win and it would deserve to win with a majority’. Browne wasn’t convinced that there will be enough Lib Dems to take the Tories over the line, but believes that Cameron would much prefer to do a deal with Nick Clegg than a ‘sizeable portion of his back benchers’. And forming a second coalition is the only way Browne said he can see Clegg’s career remaining viable.
Finally, the Ukip expert Matthew Goodwin argued that ‘Britain is in the midst of a culture war’ and the big political clash is over values which cut across the political divide — a divide between the financially secure middle classes and those who left school at 16 and have been left behind both economically, and by Westminster. Goodwin believes that Ukip is a symptom of social and political change and that Wales and the North of England will be the most interesting areas to watch for seats where Ukip will come in second place. But Goodwin warned that if these questions of values aren’t resolved, more longer term problems for our politics will be created, and the overall levels of trust in our politics will begin to decline.
This event was sponsored by Seven Investment Management
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