Is the Chagos deal dead in the water?

Is the Chagos Islands deal dead? Ever since Keir Starmer and his foreign secretary David Lammy announced plans to hand the remote archipelago to Mauritius, the UK government has been accused of risking national security. The proposed agreement would end 200 years of British rule and impact the US air base on the island of Diego Garcia. While the deal would allow the base to continue for ‘99 years’, there are worries this is a long term strategic error and that Mauritius, a trade ally of China, could allow Beijing to spy on the airfield.

On Tuesday, the UK government was dealt a further blow as the new prime minister of Mauritius said the deal was not good enough and must be renegotiated. Rejecting the deal, Navinchandra Ramgoolam told the Mauritian parliament it ‘would not produce the benefits that the nation could expect from such an agreement.’ This matters as it means it is looking very difficult for Starmer to push through the deal before Donald Trump takes office in January. Once in the White House, the new President could take a much more hostile stance over the deal and push for it to be changed or scrapped. While Foreign Office sources say the current US administration backs the deal – and if anything pushed for parts of it – the Republicans have been much more hostile.

So, what is the UK response? Coffee House understands in government there is still a view that it is possible to salvage the deal – perhaps even before Trump returns. The Foreign Office view remains that this is a ‘very good deal’ and it is right that the new Mauritian government spends time looking at the details. However, if this is a negotiating tactic from the new Mauritian government then they could end up disappointed – as sources suggest there is no new money available on the UK side. In a week when Chinese aggression has been in the news, a senior government source denies that this deal will help Beijing – saying it is ‘nonsense’ to suggest Mauritius is a satellite to China.

There’s a reason Starmer’s government is keen to keep pushing the deal through, despite security concerns and criticism from both the Tories and Reform. It is one of Starmer’s first major policy moves (even if the negotiations began under the Tories) so it will cause embarrassment if it falls apart. But the path for the deal going through is becoming narrower by the day.