Is the Bank of England’s recession warning right?

The Bank of England has warned that Britain will fall into a recession this year. Its Monetary Policy Report, released today, predicts that the economy will shrink from October, with the downturn lasting until the end of 2023. The Bank of England also hiked interest rates from 1.25 per cent to 1.75 per cent, the biggest rise for 27 years.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has never previously raised the base rate by 0.5 per cent in its 25 years of existence. Previously it has only upped rates in quarter-point stages (and there haven’t been many of those, especially in recent years). The rise will, of course, affect mortgages, but perhaps not to the extent that interest rate rises used to. Many more homebuyers today are now on fixed rate mortgages which will not be instantly affected by the change in the base rate. Borrowers will only receive a hit when their existing deal expires.

But today’s rate hike disguises a longer-term trend which is likely to prove a more important driver of markets in the next few weeks and months.