Ukraine appears to be faring well in its fight against Russia. Explosions have rocked a Russian military base in Crimea and the country’s president Volodymyr Zelensky is confidently stating that the war must end with the liberation of Crimea. Aid is also pouring in from the West. But Ukraine has been here before – and Putin’s Russia could, once again, be preparing to up the ante. Any talk of Ukraine’s triumph looks dangerously premature – particularly as we approach the month of September.
In the summer of 2014, Ukraine was managing to fend off Russian advances and making significant gains. Then, at the end of August, everything changed. As Ukraine celebrated its independence day on 24 August, marking its escape from the Soviet Union in 1991, there was a dramatic shift. Russian commanders inflicted a major defeat on Ukraine at the battle of Ilovaisk.
It was a pivotal moment. Russian troops poured into the Donetzk region, occupied it, and moved closer to the harbour city of Mariupol.
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