Is Russia about to invade Ukraine?

With occasional artillery duels and sporadic exchanges of small arms fire, Ukraine’s long-running civil war was never quite extinguished. However, the embers of the last five years, which have seen dozens killed in skirmishes each month, could now reignite as eastern Ukraine risks becoming an open battleground once again.

Around 25,000 Russian troops have been positioned on Ukraine’s disputed borders, movements which were followed by artillery bombardments and firefights that have already resulted in casualties for both sides. Further escalation between Kiev and Moscow is now frighteningly possible. In previous cases, most notably Georgia in 2008, a sudden build-up of Russian forces signals the beginning of a carefully planned assault.

The fierce fighting between 2014 and 2016 saw cities ruined and vicious battles. Life in the east of the region never quite returned to normal after the 2014 revolution, in which the Moscow-aligned Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in favour of a pro-Western government.