Survival plan: is Rishi ready for the rebels?

Ever since Rishi Sunak became leader of the Conservative party, he has been preparing for this week. Entering 10 Downing Street without winning a general election or even the Tory membership vote, he owes his position entirely to Conservative MPs. At any moment, they could decide to replace him as they did Boris Johnson. This bank holiday weekend, as the results of the May elections roll in, has always had the potential to be his moment of greatest vulnerability.

The results will show how the Tories are performing now compared with the local elections of 2021 when a triumphal 30ft giant-sized Boris balloon in Hartlepool came to symbolise his political dominance. At the time, Johnson had led Europe in the vaccine rollout and the Tories were ten percentage points ahead in the opinion polls; a lead reflected in the local results. Now, the Conservatives are 20 points behind – the biggest lag for a governing party in any recent election year.