Is Putin really to blame for this Belarusian minister’s sudden death?

Saturday’s news of the sudden death of Belarusian foreign minister Vladimir Makei, as well as the rather terse nature of the official notice, has raised the inevitable storm of instant speculation, revolving around notional Russian plots. In the process it has illustrated both some of the shortcomings of ‘instant punditry’ and the continuing significance of Alexander Lukashenko, dubbed ‘Europe’s last dictator’ (before Putin challenged for the title).

The 64-year-old Makei had been in office since 2012, and apparently died of a heart attack shortly after an official visit to Armenia and two days before he was meant to meet his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.

An ex-military intelligence officer Makei was a long-time associate of Lukashenko’s, and as such was a weather-vane, who swung in line with his patron’s policies of the moment. Before 2020, he had been a key figure in attempts to cosy up with Europe in the hope of being able to play Brussels and Berlin off against Moscow to maintain Minsk’s strategic autonomy.