Is Putin preparing for total war on 9 May?

Ahead of Russia’s annual Victory Day celebration on 9 May – which marks the date the Soviet Union defeated Nazi Germany – the world is once again playing a will he, won’t he game with Vladimir Putin. It is inconceivable that Putin will be able to declare any kind of victory in the Donbas on 9 May as he originally intended. The question now is whether he will use the anniversary to declare all-out war on Ukraine instead and fully mobilise Russian society.

It is a terrifying decision for Putin to face. The conquering army he sent into Ukraine has been shown to be deeply flawed, too small to conquer large amounts of territory, and inadequately led. It was humiliated in the Battle of Kyiv and the Russians were forced to withdraw to consolidate their army in the Donbas, where Putin was hoping to declare victory on 9 May.

Instead, Ukraine has stopped almost all Russian advances in the region.