Is President Macron’s re-election as safe as it looks?

In February 1995, Jacques Chirac was at 12 per cent in the polls. Two months later he was president. Two months is precisely the time remaining before the first round of voting in the 2022 presidential election.

At the moment, President Macron’s advantage looks unassailable: the Economist’s tracker puts his chances of being re-elected at over 80 per cent.

But just how unpredictable might this election be? After a few weeks of relative inertia, there are signs that the traditionally volatile French electorate are beginning to rumble.

Last weekend, the campaigns shifted into a higher gear, and not necessarily to the advantage of the incumbent. In a phenomenon I think it is safe to say is unprecedented in France, a liberty convoy set off for Paris, waving Canadian flags alongside their own, in order to shut the city down, just as truckers shut down Ottawa.

They arrived on Saturday morning to find the city already shut down by the police.