Is Nato ready for a Russian invasion?

In a pine forest two hours from Estonia’s border with Russia, preparation for war is under way. British, French, American and Estonian soldiers are rehearsing what Nato would do if Vladimir Putin invaded. They’ve brought Challenger II tanks, an F-16 fighter jet and Himars artillery systems – some of the best equipment the West has – for a fortnight of battle simulations. It means preparing for trench warfare, minefields, ambushes and mortar strikes in -20°C and a foot of snow.

Not long ago, the idea of fighting a war against Russia was dismissed as a joke. When Mitt Romney ran for US president he said Moscow was a threat, and Barack Obama mocked him: ‘The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back. The Cold War has been over for 20 years!’ This was America and Europe’s mindset, which led to western countries shrinking their defence budgets and refocusing their militaries for combat in the Middle East. Only five years ago Emmanuel Macron claimed Nato was ‘brain-dead’ and said it would be a ‘huge mistake’ not to re-engage with Russia – Putin did not want war.

Then Putin invaded Ukraine. The alliance was ‘jolted awake’, Macron reflected last year, ‘with the worst of electric shocks’. Russia seems to have the edge in Ukraine and European leaders warn it could soon initiate an assault on a Nato member. Estonia’s prime minister, Poland’s head of national security and the Danish defence minister all say Russia could have the soldiers and equipment to launch an attack in three years. To be ready, Nato is staging bigger war games this year than in any since the collapse of the Soviet Union: throughout 2024, around 100,000 troops from across the alliance will rehearse defending European land.