Put it this way: Mitt Romney’s route to the White House is perilously thin. He has little margin for error. Recent polls suggest Barack Obama has benefited from the Democratic convention much more than Romney was helped by the Republican party’s gathering in Florida.
As always, it is worth recalling that polling advantages in late August or even early to mid September are rarely dispositive. Of course Romney can still win but that’s hardly the same as thinking he’s likely to.
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The map at the top of this post – compiled at 270 To Win – shows how Romney could squeak an electoral college tie and send the election to the House of Representatives. That result is necessarily improbable but it’s just one illustration of how narrow Romney’s path to victory really is.
To put it simply: even if Romney wins back Indiana, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Virginia he’s still likely to need Florida to actually cross the winning-line.
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