Is Lords reform heading for a slow or quick death?

At the end of last week, Number 10 was optimistic that it and the whips were having some success in limiting the rebellion on the Lords. Some were even suggesting that the vote on the programme motion was winnable, after all. But that feeling has evaporated this morning. First, the weekend ring round by various senior figures did not meet with great success. Second, the ‘dear colleague’ letter signed by 74 MPs means that the programme motion is now pretty much certain to be defeated. Indeed, the rebels number considerably more than 74 when you include the PPSs who are planning to vote against it, the backbench opponents trying to fly under the radar and the Chairman of the 1922 Committee Graham Brady, who is also opposed but has not signed the letter. 

I understand that there will now be no great personal efforts from David Cameron to win rebels round.