Can the Conservatives do it again? The Tories have won four elections in a row but face a struggle to emulate that success next year. The Budget yesterday offered a taste of the Tories’ election pitch. But the government cannot escape some difficult numbers: Labour has led the Conservatives in the polls for more than 480 days. Keir Starmer’s party enjoys a current average poll lead of around 21 points.
If Rishi Sunak does defy these odds, his would be the first party since 1830 to win a fifth election on the trot. Back then, the Duke of Wellington was prime minister, the Slavery Abolition Act (abolishing slavery across the Empire) was a few years away and Stephenson’s Rocket had just made its debut. A Tory victory in 2024 seems unlikely – but, still, it would be a mistake to rule it out.
Sure, the Conservatives have engaged in multiple regicides, self-inflicted political injuries, hiked tax rates to their highest levels since the Second World War and have a pretty poor record of actually delivering anything.
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