Is Germany’s far right about to go mainstream?

‘We need to deport, deport, deport!’ Björn Höcke, leader of the Alternative für Deutschland in Thuringia, emphasises each word with a clenched fist. It’s a hot Saturday evening in the small town of Arnstadt and Höcke is launching the AfD’s state election campaign. His branch of the party has been categorised as ‘indisputably far right’ not just by the press but by German domestic intelligence. Nonetheless, it’s leading in the polls ahead of three east German state elections, two of which take place on Sunday. Höcke could well end up ‘Minister President’ of Thuringia.

Germany, which Keir Starmer visited this week, is struggling not just with economic difficulties but with a surge in crime that many link to the three million refugees who have arrived since Angela Merkel’s ‘We can do this!’ wave of migration in 2015. These elements collided last week in the town of Solingen, where three people were stabbed to death at a festival. Police dogs traced the suspect to a refugee hostel. A Syrian asylum seeker who dodged deportation has claimed responsibility. The Islamic State says he acted under its orders.

The atrocity has shaken Germany more than any event since the terror attack in Berlin’s Breitscheidplatz eight years ago. There was a similar attack in May, when a policeman was stabbed to death by an Afghan who arrived in Germany as a 14-year-old a decade ago. Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, is discovering – as Rishi Sunak did – the legal obstacles to deportation. He is also about to discover the electoral penalty paid for failure. He’s expected to lose next year’s federal election and his party, the Social Democrats, may struggle to qualify for the 5 per cent threshold in Saxony and Thuringia.