Is Emmanuel Macron the doomed heir to Blair?

I have a friend who lost three members of his family when an Islamic extremist drove a truck down the Promenade des Anglais in Nice on Bastille Day. When we saw each other at Christmas he said he had yet to decide whether to cast his vote for François Fillon or Marine Le Pen in the election, the two presidential candidates he considered best placed to restore law and order to France. When I asked what he thought of Emmanuel Macron he laughed. It was a cold contemptuous laugh.

In the weeks since, I’ve conducted my ‘Macron Test’ on a number of occasions, throwing his name into the conversation with my French friends to gauge their reaction. Laughter is the recurring theme. ‘Macron!’ exclaimed one on Sunday, as we returned on the Eurostar to Paris after watching the rugby at Twickenham. ‘All style and no substance. He’s our Tony Blair’.

It’s a good comparison because there are striking similarities between the 39-year-old Macron, and Blair, four years older when elected Prime Minister in 1997: young, successful, dynamic and obsessed with their image. Like Blair, Macron promises to lead his country into a prosperous new era with his progressive En Marche! [Let’s Go!] party.