A recession now looks even more certain for the United States than it does for the UK. Output has flattened. The chaotic implementation of Donald Trump’s tariff regime has left businesses bewildered. And consumers will soon be facing huge price rises. Of course, the States might well emerge in better shape at the end of it. The trouble is, President Trump has done nothing to prepare the voters for the pain ahead – and he will find a downturn very tough politically.
It is probably one of the less controversial calls Goldman Sachs has ever made. The bank’s chief executive David Solomon argued yesterday that the ‘prospect of a recession has increased’, with plenty of signs that output was slowing down both in the US, and around the world. Likewise, JP Morgan now estimates there is a 60 per cent chance of a US recession this year, while HSBC puts it at 40 per cent.
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