Is Bosnia heading for war?

Is Bosnia and Herzegovina on the brink of war? Christian Schmidt, the UN’s high representative, has warned that the country is in imminent danger of breaking apart. The return of armed conflict is a ‘very real’ prospect, he has said. Schmidt has good reason to be alarmed.

His warnings follow an announcement last month by Milorad Dodik — leader of the Bosnian Serbs and member of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency — that he plans to undertake steps amounting to secession, even if that’s not the word he is using, for now. And with any plan for secession, the very real threat of conflict and ethnic cleansing should be at the forefront of our concerns.

Dodik’s ambition appears to be to gradually undermine Bosnia’s state-level institutions. In their current set-up, the three main ethnic groups hold equal power to veto all decisions. Dodik’s group has used this arrangement to render the government inactive for months now.