Is a Russian invasion now imminent?

Tensions on the Ukraine border are continuing to increase. Worryingly, Russian state media has gone from mocking Washington’s warnings of an invasion to ramping up the various pretexts that the Kremlin is trying to create for one. The leaders of the two self-proclaimed breakaway republics in the Donbas have been on Russian TV today asking for Russia to recognise them and offer military assistance. Moscow is also claiming that it has killed five Ukraine troops who supposedly crossed into its territory. 

The Biden administration remains convinced that an attack on Ukraine is coming in the near future. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, warned this morning that ‘Every indication we see on the ground right now in terms of the disposition of Russian forces is they are getting prepared for a major attack on Ukraine.’ This follows the Kremlin casting doubt on the prospect of a Biden-Putin summit, something which Emmanuel Macron thought his telephone diplomacy had paved the way for.