Iran’s attack on Pakistan shows how close the Middle East is to war

Iranian airstrikes on ‘militant bases’ in neighbouring Pakistan signal a dangerous and worrying escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Details of what unfolded remain sketchy, but Iranian media reported that the strikes were aimed at the bases of a Sunni militant group, Jaish al-Adl. The missiles and drones landed in the Balochistan province, which lies along the 600-mile border between the two countries. Both countries have long bickered over the activities of Baloch separatists and other militant groups in the border region.

Pakistan’s foreign ministry said two children were killed and three others were injured. The Pakistani authorities condemned Iran for an ‘unprovoked violation of its airspace’, and warned of retaliation.

The Iranian action came as something of a surprise because only yesterday Iran’s foreign minister and Pakistan’s caretaker prime minister met for talks on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos in Switzerland. What could they have discussed? What is abundantly clear is that the already delicate relationship between the two countries is now teetering on the brink.

Tehran’s military action has no direct or obvious connection with the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, but it will do nothing to ease fears that the Middle East is slowly succumbing to a wider and much more unpredictable conflict. 

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The timing of the latest Iranian attacks could not be worse, coming just a day after Tehran launched missiles against Syria and Iraq. The Iranian regime claims it targeted Islamic State bases in northern Syria, and an ‘Israeli espionage headquarters’ in Erbil in northern Iraq.

It all points to unprecedented levels of tension and mutual suspicion throughout the wider Middle East. All it would take is one misunderstanding or false move to spark all-out war: Lebanon, the Red Sea, Yemen, Iraq and Syria have all become spillover conflict zones from the Gaza war. Houthi rebels have launched attacks on Red Sea shipping — absurdly justified as acts of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. This has resulted in US and allied air strikes aimed at Houthi positions in  Yemen. The Biden administration is expected any day now to declare the Houthis ‘specially designated global terrorists’. Elsewhere, Hezbollah forces in Lebanon have launched rockets  into northern Israel and the Israelis have struck back at southern Lebanon. New flashpoints are developing almost daily

The epicentre of the forces fuelling unrest and instability across the wider Middle East lies in Tehran. The regime is careful to avoid any direct confrontation with the United States but is willing to press its proxy forces into action when it suits. It provides crucial support to Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The mullahs have two aims. Firstly, to sow unrest and strike at Iran’s enemies across the region and beyond. Secondly, to use the regional instability to reinforce their hold on power back home. The regime wants to create the impression that the country is under growing threat from a range of sinister forces and is engaged in a war to the death for the nation’s very survival. It is a conflict that demands loyalty from ordinary Iranians, or so the rulers would have their people believe.

The regime’s forty-year long grip on power is facing unprecedented challenges. The country’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei is 84 and increasingly frail. The eventual battle for succession – whenever it comes – will involve a bitter internal power struggle. The nationwide protests against the regime that erupted last year have been ruthlessly crushed but the grievances of ordinary Iranians have not gone away.

Unrest is never far from the surface. The bomb attack earlier this month on the city of Kerman – which left more than eighty people dead and scores more injured – shook the regime to the core, leaving the ruling elite keen to shore up its power and lash out at perceived enemies.

When the mullahs are at their most vulnerable they resort to the tried and trusted theme of an Iran under siege, most often in the form of the great ‘Satan’ America and its allies. Turmoil and instability across the Middle East suits Iran, helping to deflect from the growing problems at home.