At age 85, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been risk-averse for much of his time in office. He has preferred to operate through proxies and partners like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis rather than directly engaging in combat with Israel and the United States. This is how he has survived. Since becoming supreme leader in 1989, Khamenei has pursued a gradual approach to eradicating the state of Israel by encircling it in a ring of fire to bleed it slowly.
His risk calculus has now changed, as shown by last night’s missile attack on Israel. According to Israeli officials, Iran launched around 200 missiles towards Israel, most of which were intercepted by Israeli aerial defences.
Khamenei was likely to have been emboldened by the lack of American deterrence in the region
Since Hamas’s massacre against Israel on October 7, 2023, Khamenei has carefully calibrated Tehran’s involvement in the regional conflict. He has armed, funded, guided, and supported Iran-aligned militias in the Middle East, but hesitated to put Iranian skin in the game.
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